According to @ReutersBiz, Brian Mulberry of Zacks Investment Management said the US government shutdown has injected a wild card into investors’ expectations for an October Federal Reserve rate cut, signaling higher near-term policy uncertainty for markets; source: Reuters Business. Shutdowns have historically delayed key economic releases such as the Employment Situation and GDP, reducing the data available for the Fed’s data-dependent decisions and complicating rate-cut timing; sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2013 shutdown delay notice), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (2013 shutdown delay statements), Federal Reserve FOMC statements noting a data-dependent policy stance. For traders, greater policy and data uncertainty tends to lift rates volatility and risk premia, which can spill over to crypto where BTC and ETH have shown rising correlation with equity risk sentiment during tightening cycles; source: International Monetary Fund analysis on crypto-equity co-movement. Key watchpoints include market-implied rate expectations and U.S. Treasury yields for signals on USD liquidity and broader risk appetite, which can influence BTC and ETH price volatility; sources: CME FedWatch Tool (policy odds), U.S. Department of the Treasury (yield curve).

According to @BullTheoryio, October rate cut odds stand at 87.7% after inflation matched expectations, leaving the Federal Reserve room to ease policy, source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, the key U.S. labor-market catalysts this week are JOLTs on Tuesday, ADP Employment and ISM Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday, Weekly Jobless Claims on Thursday, and Non-Farm Payrolls plus the Unemployment Rate on Friday, source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, a slowdown in job growth with a higher unemployment rate would strengthen the case for an October cut and reduce rate headwinds for risk assets including BTC and ETH, source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, stronger labor readings could delay a cut and spark short-term volatility before the next clear signal, source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, watch for JOLTs declining, an ADP miss, Jobless Claims rising, and a soft NFP with unemployment ticking up to confirm labor softening and support a cut or a strong hint at the next FOMC meeting, source: @BullTheoryio.

According to @BullTheoryio, revised US GDP printed 3.8% versus 3.3% expected, a stronger read that typically argues for a higher-for-longer Fed path and slightly reduced October cut odds, which is market-relevant for risk assets. source: @BullTheoryio; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis According to @BullTheoryio, the market still prices an 87.7% probability of an October rate cut despite firmer growth, reflecting liquidity pressures that could amplify any dovish signal into a risk-on rally. source: @BullTheoryio; CME FedWatch Tool According to @BullTheoryio, the PCE and Core PCE inflation prints arrive at 8:30 am ET with a 2.7% headline PCE consensus, where a softer result would bolster cut odds and risk appetite while a hotter print could delay cuts and spark near-term volatility. source: @BullTheoryio; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve According to @BullTheoryio, four Federal Reserve officials, including Vice Chair Barr, speak today and any hint of a policy pivot could rapidly reprice rates and risk assets. source: @BullTheoryio; Federal Reserve Board calendar According to @BullTheoryio, roughly $21 billion in BTC and ETH options expired today, including $16 billion in Bitcoin with max pain at $110,000 and $5 billion in Ethereum with max pain at $3,700, implying leverage resets and heightened whipsaw risk. source: @BullTheoryio; Deribit According to @BullTheoryio, seasonality is a tailwind with Uptober four days away and historically supportive for Bitcoin and altcoins, adding to potential upside catalysts. source: @BullTheoryio; Coinglass historical seasonality According to @BullTheoryio, trading focus is on the 8:30 am ET PCE release and subsequent Fed remarks for a potential Q4 rally trigger in BTC and ETH if inflation is softer and guidance skews dovish, while a hotter print and hawkish tone could extend range-bound chop into November. source: @BullTheoryio

According to @rovercrc, Polymarket prediction markets assign a 97.5% probability that the Federal Reserve cuts rates, with an 85% chance the move is 25 bps (source: Polymarket market odds). Kaiko has reported a negative correlation between BTC performance and rising U.S. real yields in 2023–2024, highlighting why Fed easing odds are a key macro input for crypto positioning (source: Kaiko research). Traders should monitor BTC and ETH spot-perp basis, funding, options implied volatility, and DXY/UST2Y around the decision to validate the path implied by Polymarket pricing (source: Deribit and Glassnode derivatives dashboards; Polymarket odds).

According to @MilkRoadDaily, $BMNR turned a $20M position in $OCTO into nearly $500M within 24 hours, implying roughly a 25x return based on the reported figures, source: @MilkRoadDaily. The post notes Crypto Twitter is divided on whether this aligns with the mandate of what it calls the world’s largest $ETH treasury, raising treasury-governance and risk considerations for Ethereum market participants, source: @MilkRoadDaily. It also cites a near-miss that could have been the largest crypto hack to date and states a Fed rate cut is almost certain, framing a risk-on backdrop and heating up crypto markets, source: @MilkRoadDaily.

According to @GreeksLive, traders should focus on Thursday’s US August CPI and Initial Jobless Claims along with the ECB deposit facility rate decision as the week’s key macro catalysts ahead of next week’s Fed meeting, where they cite 90% odds of a 25 bp cut and 10% odds of a 50 bp cut, source: @GreeksLive, Sep 8, 2025. They highlight Monday’s expected SEC ruling on Bitwise Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF physical redemption requests and note that ETF fund flows carry significant weight during the ongoing crypto price correction, source: @GreeksLive, Sep 8, 2025. They also list Tuesday’s US 2025 Nonfarm Payroll Benchmark Change (Initial) at 22:00 on the calendar, source: @GreeksLive, Sep 8, 2025. On derivatives, they report BTC implied volatility across major terms near 35% and ETH around 65% with more pronounced short-term declines, source: @GreeksLive, Sep 8, 2025. They add that September typically has weaker liquidity, the correction has lasted over half a month with no sign of ending, and short-term options are a relatively cost-effective bottom-fishing tool, favoring directional calls with limited downside and unlimited upside in current conditions, source: @GreeksLive, Sep 8, 2025.

According to @rovercrc, Polymarket pricing shows the market-implied probability of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in September has dropped to 57%, based on active prediction market contracts where prices reflect odds (source: Polymarket; @rovercrc). For traders, this 57% benchmark offers a real-time macro gauge to calibrate exposure and hedges in liquidity-sensitive crypto assets such as BTC and ETH around upcoming FOMC communications and data releases (source: Polymarket; @rovercrc).

According to @MilkRoadDaily, today’s cooler inflation print pushed the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate cut to 94.4% (source: @MilkRoadDaily). In this environment, @MilkRoadDaily states that risk assets tend to thrive and Ethereum (ETH) could see a parabolic move (source: @MilkRoadDaily).

According to Stock Talk (@stocktalkweekly), the latest headline PCE inflation rate stands at 2.1%, and the 'supercore' PCE has turned negative for the first time since COVID, signaling softening inflationary pressures. Despite these data points and heightened economic uncertainty, CME FedWatch data shows that market odds for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming June 18th meeting remain low at just 5% (Source: Stock Talk on Twitter, CME FedWatch). For crypto traders, persistent high rates may dampen risk appetite and limit immediate upside, but signs of cooling inflation could strengthen the narrative for future policy easing, supporting medium-term bullish sentiment in leading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, following this morning's data, the probability of the Federal Reserve implementing rate cuts beginning in June 2024 has increased to 61%. However, markets do not anticipate immediate cuts, signaling persistent stagflation risks and heightened uncertainty over the Fed's policy direction. This macroeconomic ambiguity has led to short-term volatility in major cryptocurrencies, as traders reassess risk exposure and await further signals from the Fed’s dual mandate. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, April 30, 2025.