According to @KobeissiLetter, Polymarket now prices a 53% probability that the Fed makes no rate cut at its December 2025 meeting, placing no change above the odds of a 25 bps cut for the first time; source: The Kobeissi Letter on X citing Polymarket. The post states that markets are worried about inflation, highlighting why no-change odds have overtaken cut odds; source: The Kobeissi Letter on X. For trading, crypto market participants can reference the Polymarket contract as a real-time gauge of rate-cut expectations when managing BTC and ETH exposure around Fed communications and macro data; source: Polymarket data referenced by The Kobeissi Letter.

According to the source, the top prediction markets on MyriadMarkets this week cover gold’s trajectory, ETH racing to $5,000, a new Solana (SOL) all-time high, and the odds of another Fed rate cut this year. According to the source, these highlighted markets indicate where trader attention is concentrated right now on the platform and outline near-term catalysts to monitor.

According to @AltcoinDaily, the current crypto sell-off is driven by hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation (source: @AltcoinDaily on X, Nov 13, 2025); collapsing odds of a December Federal Reserve rate cut (source: @AltcoinDaily on X, Nov 13, 2025); a possible AI bubble burst explicitly flagged as speculation by the source (source: @AltcoinDaily on X, Nov 13, 2025); massive leverage liquidations (source: @AltcoinDaily on X, Nov 13, 2025); SoftBank selling its entire NVDA position (source: @AltcoinDaily on X, Nov 13, 2025); two subprime hedge funds blowing up, likened to 2007 stress (source: @AltcoinDaily on X, Nov 13, 2025); peak fear (source: @AltcoinDaily on X, Nov 13, 2025); and peak manipulation (source: @AltcoinDaily on X, Nov 13, 2025).

According to @cryptorover, the odds of a December Federal Reserve rate cut are dropping, highlighting a macro shift traders monitor for potential volatility in crypto markets including BTC and ETH, source: Crypto Rover on X. Traders commonly reference the CME FedWatch Tool to quantify policy path probabilities and align positioning in crypto with changing rate expectations, source: CME FedWatch Tool.

According to @business, US Treasuries ended the week essentially flat as bulls and bears fought to a draw, with conflicting private-sector labor data leaving expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut in limbo (source: Bloomberg). The absence of a clear policy signal kept the rates outlook uncertain, offering no fresh directional cue for rate-sensitive risk assets, including BTC and ETH (source: Bloomberg).

According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing a 97.8% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at this Wednesday's FOMC decision; source: CME Group FedWatch Tool. According to the Federal Reserve's published meeting schedule, the policy statement and press conference are set for Wednesday, a timing that typically concentrates event risk for rate-sensitive assets; source: Federal Reserve Board. According to the Federal Reserve's policy implementation framework, a 25 bps cut reduces the target federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points, filtering through to short-term funding costs that traders monitor for positioning across risk assets; source: Federal Reserve Board. According to CME Group product documentation, BTC and ETH futures and options offer liquidity to hedge and express views around macro policy outcomes, making FOMC days focal for crypto derivatives activity; source: CME Group. According to ICE's U.S. Dollar Index methodology, DXY is a key USD benchmark that traders reference when valuing BTC/USD and ETH/USD during rate decisions, linking policy moves to crypto-dollar pair pricing; source: ICE

According to @StockMKTNewz, Kalshi prediction markets are pricing a 97% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 0.25% this week (source: @StockMKTNewz). According to @StockMKTNewz, these are market-implied odds heading into the upcoming FOMC decision this week (source: @StockMKTNewz).

According to @PANewsCN, substantive progress in US–China trade talks and the US indicating it will no longer consider imposing 100 percent tariffs on China boosted risk appetite and drove a strong rebound in Asian equities, supporting crypto market sentiment. Source: @PANewsCN on X, Oct 27, 2025. According to @PANewsCN, Bitcoin (BTC) broke 115,500 dollars with analysts characterizing a new cycle, identifying 111,200 dollars as key support, and noting a break above 116,000 dollars could open 120,000 dollars. Source: @PANewsCN on X, Oct 27, 2025. According to @PANewsCN, Ethereum (ETH) shows strong technical and on-chain signals, with October historically a bottom or breakout window; smart money addresses plan to take profit in the 4,190 to 4,914.9 dollar zone, and large ETH transfers drew attention. Source: @PANewsCN on X, Oct 27, 2025. According to @PANewsCN, privacy coins rallied as Zcash (ZEC) market cap surpassed 5 billion dollars, PIVX jumped 80 percent in 24 hours, and DASH and ZEN gained 23 percent and 22 percent, respectively. Source: @PANewsCN on X, Oct 27, 2025. According to @PANewsCN, the x402 ecosystem tokens’ total market cap surged 366 percent in 24 hours to over 800 million dollars, with PAYAI rising nearly 15x. Source: @PANewsCN on X, Oct 27, 2025. According to @PANewsCN, institutions maintain a long-term bullish view on gold after volatility, and the market prices a 98 percent probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut on October 29. Source: @PANewsCN on X, Oct 27, 2025. According to @PANewsCN, spot prices show BTC at 115,600 dollars and ETH at 4,238 dollars, the market fear and greed index at 42 (neutral), and 24-hour liquidations totaling 451 million dollars. Source: @PANewsCN on X, Oct 27, 2025. According to @PANewsCN, today’s watchlist includes the listing of Hong Kong’s first Solana (SOL) spot ETF and multiple token listings and unlocks, including GRASS, JUP, and SIGN. Source: @PANewsCN on X, Oct 27, 2025.

According to @ReutersBiz, Brian Mulberry of Zacks Investment Management said the US government shutdown has injected a wild card into investors’ expectations for an October Federal Reserve rate cut, signaling higher near-term policy uncertainty for markets; source: Reuters Business. Shutdowns have historically delayed key economic releases such as the Employment Situation and GDP, reducing the data available for the Fed’s data-dependent decisions and complicating rate-cut timing; sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2013 shutdown delay notice), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (2013 shutdown delay statements), Federal Reserve FOMC statements noting a data-dependent policy stance. For traders, greater policy and data uncertainty tends to lift rates volatility and risk premia, which can spill over to crypto where BTC and ETH have shown rising correlation with equity risk sentiment during tightening cycles; source: International Monetary Fund analysis on crypto-equity co-movement. Key watchpoints include market-implied rate expectations and U.S. Treasury yields for signals on USD liquidity and broader risk appetite, which can influence BTC and ETH price volatility; sources: CME FedWatch Tool (policy odds), U.S. Department of the Treasury (yield curve).

According to @BullTheoryio, October rate cut odds stand at 87.7% after inflation matched expectations, leaving the Federal Reserve room to ease policy, source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, the key U.S. labor-market catalysts this week are JOLTs on Tuesday, ADP Employment and ISM Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday, Weekly Jobless Claims on Thursday, and Non-Farm Payrolls plus the Unemployment Rate on Friday, source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, a slowdown in job growth with a higher unemployment rate would strengthen the case for an October cut and reduce rate headwinds for risk assets including BTC and ETH, source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, stronger labor readings could delay a cut and spark short-term volatility before the next clear signal, source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, watch for JOLTs declining, an ADP miss, Jobless Claims rising, and a soft NFP with unemployment ticking up to confirm labor softening and support a cut or a strong hint at the next FOMC meeting, source: @BullTheoryio.

According to @BullTheoryio, revised US GDP printed 3.8% versus 3.3% expected, a stronger read that typically argues for a higher-for-longer Fed path and slightly reduced October cut odds, which is market-relevant for risk assets. source: @BullTheoryio; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis According to @BullTheoryio, the market still prices an 87.7% probability of an October rate cut despite firmer growth, reflecting liquidity pressures that could amplify any dovish signal into a risk-on rally. source: @BullTheoryio; CME FedWatch Tool According to @BullTheoryio, the PCE and Core PCE inflation prints arrive at 8:30 am ET with a 2.7% headline PCE consensus, where a softer result would bolster cut odds and risk appetite while a hotter print could delay cuts and spark near-term volatility. source: @BullTheoryio; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve According to @BullTheoryio, four Federal Reserve officials, including Vice Chair Barr, speak today and any hint of a policy pivot could rapidly reprice rates and risk assets. source: @BullTheoryio; Federal Reserve Board calendar According to @BullTheoryio, roughly $21 billion in BTC and ETH options expired today, including $16 billion in Bitcoin with max pain at $110,000 and $5 billion in Ethereum with max pain at $3,700, implying leverage resets and heightened whipsaw risk. source: @BullTheoryio; Deribit According to @BullTheoryio, seasonality is a tailwind with Uptober four days away and historically supportive for Bitcoin and altcoins, adding to potential upside catalysts. source: @BullTheoryio; Coinglass historical seasonality According to @BullTheoryio, trading focus is on the 8:30 am ET PCE release and subsequent Fed remarks for a potential Q4 rally trigger in BTC and ETH if inflation is softer and guidance skews dovish, while a hotter print and hawkish tone could extend range-bound chop into November. source: @BullTheoryio

According to @rovercrc, Polymarket prediction markets assign a 97.5% probability that the Federal Reserve cuts rates, with an 85% chance the move is 25 bps (source: Polymarket market odds). Kaiko has reported a negative correlation between BTC performance and rising U.S. real yields in 2023–2024, highlighting why Fed easing odds are a key macro input for crypto positioning (source: Kaiko research). Traders should monitor BTC and ETH spot-perp basis, funding, options implied volatility, and DXY/UST2Y around the decision to validate the path implied by Polymarket pricing (source: Deribit and Glassnode derivatives dashboards; Polymarket odds).

According to @MilkRoadDaily, $BMNR turned a $20M position in $OCTO into nearly $500M within 24 hours, implying roughly a 25x return based on the reported figures, source: @MilkRoadDaily. The post notes Crypto Twitter is divided on whether this aligns with the mandate of what it calls the world’s largest $ETH treasury, raising treasury-governance and risk considerations for Ethereum market participants, source: @MilkRoadDaily. It also cites a near-miss that could have been the largest crypto hack to date and states a Fed rate cut is almost certain, framing a risk-on backdrop and heating up crypto markets, source: @MilkRoadDaily.

According to @GreeksLive, traders should focus on Thursday’s US August CPI and Initial Jobless Claims along with the ECB deposit facility rate decision as the week’s key macro catalysts ahead of next week’s Fed meeting, where they cite 90% odds of a 25 bp cut and 10% odds of a 50 bp cut, source: @GreeksLive, Sep 8, 2025. They highlight Monday’s expected SEC ruling on Bitwise Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF physical redemption requests and note that ETF fund flows carry significant weight during the ongoing crypto price correction, source: @GreeksLive, Sep 8, 2025. They also list Tuesday’s US 2025 Nonfarm Payroll Benchmark Change (Initial) at 22:00 on the calendar, source: @GreeksLive, Sep 8, 2025. On derivatives, they report BTC implied volatility across major terms near 35% and ETH around 65% with more pronounced short-term declines, source: @GreeksLive, Sep 8, 2025. They add that September typically has weaker liquidity, the correction has lasted over half a month with no sign of ending, and short-term options are a relatively cost-effective bottom-fishing tool, favoring directional calls with limited downside and unlimited upside in current conditions, source: @GreeksLive, Sep 8, 2025.

According to @rovercrc, Polymarket pricing shows the market-implied probability of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in September has dropped to 57%, based on active prediction market contracts where prices reflect odds (source: Polymarket; @rovercrc). For traders, this 57% benchmark offers a real-time macro gauge to calibrate exposure and hedges in liquidity-sensitive crypto assets such as BTC and ETH around upcoming FOMC communications and data releases (source: Polymarket; @rovercrc).

According to @MilkRoadDaily, today’s cooler inflation print pushed the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate cut to 94.4% (source: @MilkRoadDaily). In this environment, @MilkRoadDaily states that risk assets tend to thrive and Ethereum (ETH) could see a parabolic move (source: @MilkRoadDaily).

According to Stock Talk (@stocktalkweekly), the latest headline PCE inflation rate stands at 2.1%, and the 'supercore' PCE has turned negative for the first time since COVID, signaling softening inflationary pressures. Despite these data points and heightened economic uncertainty, CME FedWatch data shows that market odds for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming June 18th meeting remain low at just 5% (Source: Stock Talk on Twitter, CME FedWatch). For crypto traders, persistent high rates may dampen risk appetite and limit immediate upside, but signs of cooling inflation could strengthen the narrative for future policy easing, supporting medium-term bullish sentiment in leading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, following this morning's data, the probability of the Federal Reserve implementing rate cuts beginning in June 2024 has increased to 61%. However, markets do not anticipate immediate cuts, signaling persistent stagflation risks and heightened uncertainty over the Fed's policy direction. This macroeconomic ambiguity has led to short-term volatility in major cryptocurrencies, as traders reassess risk exposure and await further signals from the Fed’s dual mandate. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, April 30, 2025.